Run Galaxy

MLB Game Totals

Full-game over/under EV from 10,000-run Monte Carlo projections vs FanDuel and DraftKings.

Slate date: 2026-06-03

Looking for basketball totals? WNBA Totals · NBA Totals

No MLB games on today's slate in mlb_games. Check game_date and schedule ingestion.

Methodology

Methodology — Game Totals v1

For each game, we simulate 10,000 possible outcomes using a Monte Carlo engine driven by:

Each starting pitcher's projected strikeout rate and innings pitched (computed from our pitcher prop Monte Carlo)
League-average bullpen run-allowed rate for innings after the starter exits
Poisson distribution of runs scored against each pitcher

The model outputs a projected total runs distribution, which we compare to FanDuel and DraftKings closing lines. We apply 0.7 shrinkage toward the no-vig market consensus to control for model overconfidence during calibration.

Calibration window: 2-3 weeks of live tracking before scaling stake size. Production version (Q3) will incorporate: weather (wind/temp/humidity), park factors, lineup confirmation, umpire tendencies, bullpen fatigue, and Markov chain run expectancy.